ZE-Gen research shows data-driven design and flexible financing can accelerate solar adoption.
26 Jan 2026, London – A new report by ZE-Gen, launched on the International Day of Clean Energy, shows customer-centred solutions are critical to driving Nigeria’s clean energy transition. Currently more than 86 million people lack electricity access in Nigeria – the largest national electricity access deficit in the world.1
‘Understanding Nigeria’s Fossil Fuel Generator Challenge’ marks the first public release of detailed customer-level data on fossil fuel generator use in Nigeria, where an estimated 41 million small businesses and 17 million households use petrol and diesel generators, contributing to an estimated $8 billion spent each year on fuel for highly polluting and expensive power.
The first-of-its-kind report by ZE-Gen combines 12 months of smart meter data collected by the Access to Energy Institute (A2EI) with in-depth market analysis by Open Capital across households, MSMEs, schools, healthcare facilities, and hotels in Nigeria.
It highlights that despite near-universal interest in switching from fossil fuel generators to modern solar generators, high upfront costs and inflexible financing remain the biggest barriers to change.
While historically, fossil fuel generators have dominated the market due to their availability, low upfront cost, and perceived reliability, today modern high-quality solar-powered generators remove the need for fuel entirely, offering a cleaner, quieter, and are more economical in the long-term in resource-constrained settings.
The report shows that a standard solar generator with a 2.5kW maximum output, combined with 1kW of solar panels and a 2kWh battery, could potentially meet up to 85% of the energy requirements of the customers surveyed. To unlock this potential, the report calls for data-driven product design, flexible financing models, and targeted awareness campaigns to ensure clean energy solutions meet real-world needs and budgets.
Key stakeholder recommendations include:
- Product Developers & Distributors – Collaboratively design products using real smart meter data insights to create modular, scalable solar gensets tailored to Nigerian load profiles.
- Investors & Lenders – Increase market availability of flexible customer financing models and use of carbon credits to lower upfront costs and expand inventory procurement services to reduce capital pressure
- Donor & Development Partners – Build local capacity and customer awareness by training technicians, empowering entrepreneurs and running awareness campaigns to drive demand and trust.
- Policy Makers – Expand and strengthen policy and regulatory support and incentives that enforce quality standards, streamline approvals, and consider mechanisms to expand local installation and maintenance labour force.
In addition, the report shows the benefit of leveraging data platforms for transparency, including using open-source tools like ZE-Gen’s PROSPECT platform to share insights and guide investment decisions and the importance of cross-industry collaboration and partnerships between solar generator suppliers and smart meter installers to share customer insights and drive product innovation.
By aligning technology with how customers actually use energy and what they can afford, Nigeria can accelerate the shift away from fossil fuel generators and deliver more affordable and reliable power to millions of households and Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs).
Based on the data analysed, customer-driven solutions could:
- Reduce energy costs for millions of households and MSMEs.
- Cut emissions by displacing 500,000 litres of diesel annually, avoiding thousands of tonnes of CO₂e.
- Unlock hundreds of millions in investment for solar generators.
- Improve public health and prevent deaths from toxic fumes by replacing noisy, polluting fossil fuel generators with cleaner alternatives.
Lily Beadle, Programme Director, ZE-Gen said:
“Technology alone won’t solve Nigeria’s energy challenge – innovation must be combined with understanding the customer. Real-world data tells us what people need, how they use energy, and what they can afford.
“This report provides the market with a completely new understanding of customer use and insight is the foundation for designing solutions that work at scale.”
The includes market analysis by Open Capital and smart meter user data by A2EI.
Thomas Duveau, Chief Strategy Officer, Access to Energy Institute, said:
“Transparent access to verified data helps us to stop guessing. This report specifically analyses how fossil fuel generators can be replaced by solar solutions. It utilizes our data platform Prospect’s long-term data aggregation capabilities to provide solar developers, distributors, and investors with valuable insights to the Nigerian market. Further, it equips them with the tools to conduct their own analyses and enhance customer-centric solar generator design – accelerating the transition from fossil fuels to affordable, efficient solar alternatives. The methodology we developed jointly with Carbon Trust can be replicated in other countries.”
Duda Slawek, Associate Partner and Head of Clean Energy, Open Capital, said:
“Nigeria’s generator market presents one of the largest opportunities globally to scale clean alternatives, but only if solutions are designed around real customer behaviour and market constraints. By combining smart-meter data with detailed market and policy analysis, this study moves the conversation from aspiration to execution, offering a clearer roadmap for developers, investors, and policymakers to channel capital into solar generator solutions that are commercially viable, appropriately sized, and affordable at scale.”
Globally, around 1.5 billion people live with weak, unreliable, or no access to electricity. More than 80 million fossil fuel generators are currently in use, contributing to pollution, greenhouse gas emissions, noise and health risks, while imposing unpredictable fuel costs. In contrast, modern solar-powered generators offer cleaner, quieter, and more cost-effective alternatives.
Why Customer Insights Matter
More than 86 million Nigerians lack electricity access, making Nigeria the largest national electricity access deficit globally.2
41 million MSMEs and 17 million households rely on generators, spending $8 billion annually on fuel.
100% of surveyed customers expressed interest in clean energy alternatives, and 99% agreed that accessible financing is essential.
Smart meter data shows typical generator use is 2–4 hours per day, with peak demand in evenings for households and daytime for MSMEs—critical for sizing solar systems.
Smart meter data can identify the differences and similarities between different customer categories to create better customer profiles.
Notes for Editors
Full report: The report ‘Understanding Nigeria’s Fossil Fuel Generator Challenge’ launched on 26 January 2026 to coincide with International Clean Energy Day.
Webinar on key findings: 13:00-14:00 GMT, Tuesday 3 February 2026.
Join ZE‑Gen, A2EI and Open Capital for a webinar exploring the key insights from ZE-Gen’s new customer‑centred energy report – and how these findings can accelerate clean energy transitions in markets far beyond Nigeria. Reserve your place.
For further information please contact:
The Carbon Trust press office on +44 (0)20 7170 7050 or press@carbontrust.com.
Partnerships: To collaborate on customer-centric product design or financing pilots, email ZE-Gen: ze-gen@carbontrust.com
Background Information: ZE-Gen
Launched at COP27, ZE-Gen, is the leading international initiative working to improve the lives of people across Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia and the Pacific Islands by driving the use of renewable energy in place of polluting fossil fuel generators.
ZE-Gen is a collaborative initiative by Carbon Trust and Innovate UK and has an ambition to mobilise £100m of funding to inspire action and implement real-world change, delivered in partnership with sector specialists. ZE-Gen brings partners together and engages with the public and private sector to identify new opportunities and provide commercialisation support such as investment readiness, market engagement, strategy & sales and product/service development.
To date, ZE-Gen has catalysed £39.75m, including support from the IKEA Foundation and the UK Government’s Ayrton Fund, and has supported more than 35 localised renewable energy projects across Nigeria, the Philippines, Cote d’Ivoire, Fiji, South Africa, Malawi and Uganda.
The Carbon Trust leads on ZE-Gen’s investments into financial mechanisms, research activities, outreach and strategy, with input and oversight across the whole ZE-Gen programme.
Innovate UK is responsible for delivering grant funding to advance renewable technology through the ZE-Gen Innovation Fund.
For more information please contact: ze-gen@carbontrust.com
Visit the ZE-Gen programme website – https://www.ze-gen.org
About the Access to Energy Institute (A2EI)
The Access to Energy Institute (A2EI) provides comprehensive, reliable open-source data, as well as on-the-ground research and analysis of solar solutions and software platforms to administer these. The data platform Prospect, is the only open-source based platform that automatically collects, harmonises, aggregates, analyses and displays data from all modern, sustainable energy solutions. It enables companies, governments, financiers, to transparently monitor and verify energy transition access projects, share data securely, gain insights, and facilitate financing.
About Open Capital
Open Capital is a management consulting & financial advisory firm that drives growth, enables investment & builds markets across the African continent.
About the Transforming Energy Access (TEA) Platform
Transforming Energy Access is the flagship Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO) research and innovation platform supporting early-stage testing and scale-up of innovative technologies and business models that accelerate access to affordable, clean energy for poor households, enterprises, and social institutions in developing countries across sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, and the Indo-Pacific.
About the Ayrton Fund
The Ayrton Fund is a UK Government commitment on clean energy research, development and demonstration (RD&D), supporting the clean energy transition in developing countries and part of the broader £11.6bn of International Climate Finance (ICF) committed by the UK between 2021 and 2026. The Fund is focused on key thematic challenges aligned with Sustainable Development Goals 7 (Affordable and Clean Energy) and 13 (Climate Action), including Zero Emissions Generators.